COVID-19 | The Health Ministry today reported 2,148 new Covid-19 cases, the highest in 41 days.

There are currently 17,575 active Covid-19 cases, up from a recent low of 14,161 on April 6. Similarly, the number of Covid-19 patients requiring intensive care has risen to 212, up from a recent low of 147 on March 12.

• Active cases: 17,575
• Patients in ICUs: 212
• Intubated: 82

States

Sarawak (512) reported the highest number of cases. This is the third highest number of new cases reported by the state so far.

New cases in Sabah (202) have not been this high since February. Sabah was once the epicentre for Covid-19 cases following the state election last September.

Four out of the 15 new clusters classified by the Health Ministry today were in Sabah.

The total number of new cases in East Malaysia accounted for 33.4 percent of new cases, exceeding that of the Klang Valley (29.7 percent).

In Kelantan (221), five new clusters were classified today. Most parts of Kelantan will be subjected to movement control order (MCO) restrictions beginning midnight tonight.

At the national level, the R-naught figure has risen to 1.14, up from 0.81 on March 3. An R-naught of more than 1.00 suggests that the rate of spread of Covid-19 is increasing.

There are only six regions where the figure was less than one – Selangor, Penang, Johor, Malacca, Labuan and Pahang.

Deaths

There were 10 reported Covid-19 deaths today, bringing the national death toll to 1,363.

These reports were made in Kuala Lumpur (3), Selangor (3), Sarawak (2), Sabah (1) and Johor (1).

There was a foreigner among the victims who had already passed away when she was brought to the Duchess of Kent Hospital in Sandakan, Sabah.

Details of the victims are recorded in Malaysiakini’s Covid-19 tracker site.

Clusters

There are currently 346 active Covid-19 clusters in the country, where 73 saw new cases being reported today.

The cluster with the most cases is Jalan Kempas Satu (81), which involved the Muar district in Johor and has been active since April 10.

There were 15 new clusters classified by the Health Ministry today. Notably, five of these clusters involved educational institutions.

Kampung Bunut Sarang Burung cluster
District(s): Tumpat, Kota Bharu and Tanah Merah in Kelantan
Locality/Source: An educational institution at Kampung Bunut Sarang Burung, Tumpat
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 8, index case with symptoms
Total infected: 50 out of 121 screened

Kampung Domis cluster
District(s): Kuala Krai, Machang, Pasir Mas, Tumpat and Tanah Merah in Kelantan
Locality/Source: An educational institution at Kampung Domis, Tanah Merah
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 12, index case with symptoms
Total infected: 40 out of 152 screened

Kampung Labok cluster
District(s): Machang in Kelantan
Locality/Source: An educational institution at Jalan Kampung Joh, Labok, Machang
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 13, targeted screening
Total infected: 9 out of 96 screened

Kok Lanas cluster
District(s): Kota Bahru, Tanah Merah and Tumpat in Kelantan
Locality/Source: An educational institution at Kok Lanas, Kota Bahru
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 12, index case with symptoms
Total infected: 31 out of 56 screened

Jaya Setia cluster
District(s): Petaling in Selangor
Locality/Source: A factory at Jalan Jaya Setia 26/3, Hicom Industrial Estate, Shah Alam
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 13, targeted screening
Total infected: 12 out of 94 screened

Perabot Olak Lempit cluster
District(s): Kuala Langat in Selangor
Locality/Source: A factory at Jalan 8, Banting
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 11, targeted screening
Total infected: 25 out of 326 screened

Lorong Megah Jaya cluster
District(s): Sandakan in Sabah
Locality/Source: Private company at Bandar Tyng, Sandakan
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 13, index case with symptoms
Total infected: 18 out of 38 screened

Jalan Labuk Tiga cluster
District(s): Sandakan and Lahad Datu in Sabah
Locality/Source: Educational institution at Kilometer 18, Jalan Labuk, Sandakan
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 8, index case with symptoms
Total infected: 15 out of 82 screened

Jalan Radin cluster
District(s): Lembah Pantai and Cheras in Kuala Lumpur
Locality/Source: A restaurant at Jalan Radin Bagus 3, Sri Petaling, Lembah Pantai
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 13, targeted screening
Total infected: 10 out of 30 screened

Biah Skim cluster
District(s): Keningau in Sabah
Locality/Source: Social event at Kampung Biah Skim, Keningau pada 29 Mac 2021
Cluster category: Community
First case: April 14, index case subjected to pre-hospitalisation screening
Total infected: 10 out of 20 screened

Melangkap Tomis cluster
District(s): Kota Belud and Tuaran in Sabah
Locality/Source: Social event that took place on March 30 in Kampung Melangkap Tomis, Kota Belud
Cluster category: Community
First case: April 7, index case with symptoms
Total infected: 10 out of 188 screened

Kampung Bechah Semak cluster
District(s): Pasir Mas and Tanah Merah in Kelantan
Locality/Source: Vicinity of Kampung Bechah Semak, Pasir Mas
Cluster category: Community
First case: April 7, index case with symptoms
Total infected: 36 out of 111 screened

Jalan Cempaka Putih cluster
District(s): Kulai and Kota Tinggi in Johor
Locality/Source: Index case’s residence at Jalan Cempaka Putih, Kampung Bahagia, Kulai
Cluster category: Community
First case: April 9, index case with symptoms
Total infected: 9 out of 106 screened

Taman Rakyat cluster
District(s): Dungun in Terengganu
Locality/Source: Social event held at Taman Rakyat Jaya, Balai Besar, Dungun pada 1 April 2021
Cluster category: Community
First case: April 7, index case screened after crossing state borders
Total infected: 26 out of 429 screened

Kampung Pokok Machang cluster
District(s): Baling, Kuala Muda and Kulim in Kedah
Locality/Source: Vicinity of Kampung Pokok Machang, Bukit Selambau, Sungai Petani
Cluster category: Community
First case: April 12, index case reported symptoms
Total infected: 14 out of 35 screened

Source:Malaysiakini

The Health Ministry today reported 1,889 new cases – the highest figure reported in 40 days.

Most of the new cases were reported in the Klang Valley (34.9 percent) and East Malaysia (33.5 percent).

There are currently 16,696 active Covid-19 cases, up from a recent low of 14,161 on April 6. Similarly, the number of Covid-19 patients requiring intensive care has risen to 204, up from a recent low of 147 on March 12.

• Active cases: 16,696
• Patients in ICU: 204
• Intubated: 79

Breakdown by states

As of yesterday, the R-naught figure for the country increased to 1.09. An R-naught of more than 1.00 suggests that the rate of spread of Covid-19 is increasing.

There are only three regions where the figure was less than one – Perlis, Penang and Johor.

Selangor reported the most cases (517) where one in five cases were detected either through voluntary testing, testing due to Covid-19 symptoms, pre-departure screening or pre-hospitalisation screening.

Sabah (142) reported the highest number of cases in 45 days of which half were reported in Tawau which is currently experiencing a major outbreak.

Deaths

There were eight deaths reported by the Health Ministry today, bringing the national Covid-19 death toll to 1,345.

Five of the eight new deaths reported today were in Sarawak, followed by Selangor (1), Kuala Lumpur (1) and Sabah (1).

The youngest victim was 45 and the eldest 89. Details of the victims are recorded on Malaysiakini’s Covid-19 tracker page.

Clusters

The Health Ministry reported that 341 Covid-19 clusters are still active, down from 424 a month ago.

There were 72 clusters that reported new cases. The cluster with the newest cases is the Tembok Sri Aman prison cluster (76 cases) in Sarawak.

There were seven new clusters classified by the Health Ministry today.

Notably, the Permatang Berangan cluster, involving an educational institution, was subjected to targeted screening by the Health Ministry, which is rare.

Jalan Khidmat cluster
District(s): Kota Kinabalu in Sabah
Locality/Source: An educational institution at Jalan Khidmat, Kota Kinabalu
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 12, index case with symptoms
Total infected: 24 out of 796 screened

Batu Sepuluh cluster
District(s): Tawau in Sabah
Locality/Source: A public institution in Batu 10, Apas, Tawau
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: March 28, index case is a close contact of Covid-19 patient
Total infected: 16 out of 50 screened

Jalan Mohd Taib cluster
District(s): Hulu Selangor and Klang in Selangor
Locality/Source: A supermarket warehouse at Jalan Mohd Taib, Kawasan Perindustrian Sungai Choh, Hulu Selangor
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 7, index case is a close contact of Covid-19 patient
Total infected: 10 out of 49 screened

Jalan Sempilai cluster
District(s): Seberang Perai Tengah, Seberang Perai Utara and Seberang Perai Selatan in Penang
Locality/Source: A government building at Jalan Sempilai, Permatang Pauh, Seberang Perai Tengah
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 11, index case was subjected to voluntary screening
Total infected: 14 out of 57 screened

Permatang Berangan cluster
District(s): Kuala Muda in Kedah
Locality/Source: An educational institution at Kampung Baru, Permatang Berangan, Sungai Petani
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 13, targeted screening
Total infected: 28 out of 51 screened

Jalan Gapam cluster
District(s): Malacca Tengah and Jasin in Malacca
Locality/Source: Index case’s residence at Jalan Gapam Bemban, Melaka Tengah
Cluster category: Workplace
First case: April 10, index case reported symptoms
Total infected: 10 out of 102 screened

Jalan Sahadi cluster
District(s): Sepang, Klang and Kuala Selangor in Selangor
Locality/Source: Social event at Jalan Sahadi, Kampung Sungai Pelek, Sepang pada 3 April 2021
Cluster category: Community
First case: April 11, index case reported symptoms
Total infected: 20 out of 59 screened

Source: Malaysiakini

LONDON: Twenty-five years ago, war over Taiwan seemed imminent.

Chinese missiles flew in the direction of Taiwan and a US aircraft carrier sailed through the Taiwan Strait in a defiant signal of resolve.

Now, tensions are rising over Taiwan again. China has increased aerial and naval patrols around Taiwan and this week, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in a warning to Beijing “it would be a serious mistake for anyone to try to change [the] status quo by force.”

The public discourse has started to imply war over Taiwan may again be a possibility.  Speaking in early March, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Phil Davidson, suggested that China might launch an invasion of Taiwan within six years.

But these assessments are misleading. Although Beijing’s desire to reunify with Taiwan remains strong, and China has channelled resources to put pressure on Taiwan, it knows the cost of any invasion of Taiwan are incredibly prohibitive and could lead to a long-drawn conflict.

Rather, China is more likely to pursue a gradualist approach, slowly eroding Taiwanese sovereignty. Rather than a bloody war, China will most probably look to “salami slice” its way to reunification.

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TAIWANESE DETERRENCE

Since the Kuomintang retreated to Taiwan in 1949, reunification has been a primary policy goal for Beijing. But over 70 years, the island has been able to maintain sufficient military deterrence to make an invasion seem too costly or difficult to achieve.

Despite having a population just 2 per cent the size of China’s, US support, rapid economic growth in the latter half of the 20th century and outsized investment in defence has enabled Taiwan to maintain a qualitative military edge over China for decades.

For Beijing, focused on defence of its own borders and often consumed by internal instability, from the Great Leap Forward to the Cultural Revolution, an invasion of Taiwan seemed like an unwise task.

However, the opening of China’s economy in the late 1970s, subsequent rapid growth and an effective military industrialisation strategy have seen China leapfrog defence technology development. The military deterrence that Taiwan once possessed is being worn down.

Some estimates suggest the PLA is now not just numerically superior, but technologically on a par with Taiwan, meaning that a war across the Taiwan Strait would likely end in China’s favour.

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But such studies ignore the reality that even a relatively successful invasion of Taiwan will require a bloody, costly campaign.

Taiwan sits 100 miles off China’s coast, across open water where Chinese vessels would be vulnerable to missile and torpedo attack.

Taipei has also vowed to pepper China’s coastline with missile salvoes; the 2021 Quadrennial Defence Review, released in March, noted that the island’s strategy would be to “resist the enemy on the opposite shore, attack it at sea, destroy it in the littoral area, and annihilate it on the beachhead.”

China would likely lose tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of troops, to say nothing about the impossible task of pacifying an island of 23.5 million Taiwanese who would likely resist Chinese occupation.

Moreover, while China might be able to launch a successful invasion of Taiwan, the outcome is less certain if the US commits immediately and resolutely to Taiwan’s defence. US nuclear-powered submarines, carrier strike groups and missile forces throughout the region will make any cross-strait operation even more treacherous.

READ: Commentary: They already have jet bombers and super missiles. Will Chinese fighter jets be more powerful than America’s soon?

For the CCP, regaining Taiwan is a defining priority, but losing a war over Taiwan is a regime-threatening event.

SALAMI SLICING TAIWAN

The alternative, and less risky, path to war for Beijing is therefore to use a strategy that has been successful elsewhere: Salami slicing.

 

 

In salami slicing, small, incremental changes are made to move towards a larger goal. Those small changes are insignificant enough to fall short of a reason for war, but when added together start to definitively change the facts on the ground.

In China’s near-seas, this process has involved a massive increase in the patrols of Chinese military, paramilitary and commercial vessels, island reclamation and more overflights of aircraft.

These tactics work on land and sea – on its mountainous border with India, China has built a string of villages in disputed territory to create a fait accompli of occupation.

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With Taiwan, a similar salami slicing strategy is already in process. In recent years, China has successfully eroded decades-long norms about Taiwanese air zones. In 2016, China began frequent circumnavigational flights of the island. In 2019, regular incursions by Chinese military aircraft across the median line between the two entities began.

In the 60 years prior to this, just one intentional crossings of the median line had occurred; now they are commonplace. In September 2020, 37 aircraft crossed the line.

And Chinese aircraft crossed into Taiwan’s air defence identification zones a record 380 times in 2020, the most since the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis. On Apr 13, the largest incursion yet, of 25 aircraft, occurred.

Such flights are becoming so commonplace Taiwan has stopped scrambling jets to every Chinese incursion. It has become too costly to do so. By October 2020, Taiwan had scrambled 2,972 times against Chinese aircraft that year.

 

 

The same is happening at sea. China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, had exercised off the coast of Taiwan in early April. By November 2020, Taiwanese vessels had intercepted Chinese ships 1,223 times – a 50 per cent increase over the previous year.

Beijing has already started to shift the expectations of behaviour and created a new normal where the presence of Chinese military aircraft and vessels is routine, even expected.

In the wake of the new Chinese Coast Guard Law in February, Taiwanese analysts have warned harassment of Taiwanese vessels by China’s paramilitary force may be next. Sun Tzu-yun of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research noted at a mid-March forum that such grey zone tactics would be harder to counteract.

READ: Commentary: China’s boycott of H&M, Nike and other big brands is really bizarre

Meanwhile, Beijing has also started to use commercial vessels as a regular Chinese presence on Taiwan’s outlying islands – Chinese dredgers have since mid-2020 been reportedly “swarming around the Matsu islands”, while the Taiwanese coast guard had ejected 4,000 Chinese dredgers and sand-transporting vessels from Taiwanese waters in 2020, a 560 per cent increase over the previous year.

It is not the main island of Taiwan at most risk of such salami-slicing tactics, but Taiwan’s outlying islands such as Penghu, Matsu, Kinmen and Pratas.

With small populations and at a distance from the main island, these are vulnerable to greater pressure campaigns from China, whether grey-zone tactics or a more militarised operation.

Would Washington react militarily if China occupied one of the smaller Kinmen islands – an uninhabited rock just 10 km off China’s coastline – in a bloodless operation?

What if it were not military personnel but Chinese “fishermen” that set up camp there? Would it not be challenging to justify a military response to such a small non-military change?

 

 

RECLAIMING TAIWAN

The threat of war from China should not be ignored – reunification with Taiwan would be a crowning moment for any Chinese leader and the PLA is explicitly geared toward an offensive against the island.

But invasion is not the only arrow in China’s quiver. For Taipei and Washington, devising an effective response to China’s salami slicing tactics, which slowly change the facts and shift perceptions of sovereignty and autonomy, is likely more pressing in the short term.

Christian Le Miere is a foreign policy adviser and the founder and managing director of Arcipel, a strategic advisory firm based in London.

Source: CNA/sl